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Peter Brookes writes
a weekly column on foreign policy and defense
for the New York Post and is penning
a book on national security affairs for McGraw
Hill due out early next fall. He appears regularly
on national TV and radio.
Prior to joining the Heritage
Foundation, Brookes served in the Bush
administration as the Deputy Assistant Secretary
of Defense (DASD) for Asian and Pacific Affairs
in the Office of Defense Secretary Donald
Rumsfeld, where he was responsible for the
development, planning, guidance and oversight
of U .S. security and defense policy for 38
countries and 5 bilateral defense alliances
in the Asia-Pacific region.
Brookes has a distinguished military background,
including active duty in support of military
operations in Iraq/Kuwait (Desert Storm);
Haiti (Restore Democracy); and Bosnia (Joint
Endeavor). He flew reconnaissance missions
in East Asia and the Persian Gulf while stationed
in Japan covering military matters related
to the Soviet Union, North Korea, China, Vietnam,
Iran and Iraq. His personal awards and decorations
include: the Joint Service Commendation Medal;
the Navy Commendation Medal (3 awards); the
Navy Achievement Medal; several naval and
joint unit awards; the Defense Language Institute’s
Kellogg Award; the Joint Chiefs of Staff service
badge; and Naval Aviation Observer (NAO) wings.
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April 25, 2005
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Saudi Arabia's de facto ruler, Crown Prince Ab dullah
bin Abdul Aziz, visits President Bush's Crawford ranch today. The trip
couldn't be more timely -- and not just because of record gasoline
prices.
Saudi Arabia's terrorism struggles, reform prospects and influence with
Syria make this meeting -- the first of the two leaders since 2002 -- a
heck of a lot more than a run-of-the-mill Texas BBQ.
Oil: Skyrocketing prices will top the agenda. Rising energy costs helped
trigger the recent stock market slide, and Saudi Arabia is the world's
largest oil producer -- and the only country capable of increasing
production in the short-term.
The president will push for increased Saudi oil production to help ease
short-term prices. But America has to do its share by boosting refining
capacity and exploiting alternative energy sources such as nuclear,
hydrogen, clean coal, etc.
And the grim truth is that $50-a-barrel oil is here to stay. Some
analysts even predict a $75 barrel during the peak summer driving season
-- and a $100-a-barrel "superspike" could come if Chinese and Indian
energy consumption continues to soar.
Syria-Lebanon: Saudi Arabia is an ally of Syria, but also has strong
ties to Lebanon. Riyadh played an important role in getting Damascus to
begin its withdrawal from Lebanon.
Bush will likely ask Abdullah to press the Syrians to truly follow
through: a total pullout, spies and other "intelligence assets"
included, and non-interference in future Lebanese elections.
The Saudis should also push Syria to end its support for the Iraqi
insurgency: It's not working, and Damascus doesn't need to buy more ill
will.
Terror: Saudi Arabia has made significant progress in fighting terrorism
since the kingdom was rocked by a spate of al Qaeda attacks, beginning
in May 2003. Experts (generally) agree that (for now) the government has
the upper hand in stemming al Qaeda's attempts to topple the House of
Saud.
But the struggle hasn't been without cost: Terror attacks have killed
over 90 Saudis and foreigners (including Americans), causing over $250
million in damage.
Three days of gun battles with al Qaeda earlier this month were the
bloodiest yet. There was another clash with al Qaeda near the holy city
of Mecca late last week.
And the struggle is far from over; some estimates indicate that there
are as many as 5,000 members and supporters of the "deviant group" (the
Saudi sobriquet for al Qaeda) in the kingdom.
Continued attacks are sure to affect world oil prices, even though the
Saudis insist that the oil industry, concentrated in the eastern part of
the country, is well protected.
Reform: President Bush has (rightly) made the democratic transformation
of the Arab/Muslim world, as part of the terror fight, the
administration's top foreign-policy priority.
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Though the president has urged Saudi Arabia to expand "the role of its
people in determining their future," the "Arab spring" hasn't sprung in
the Saudi kingdom.
In Saudi Arabia, there is no separation of "mosque and state." The Koran
is the country's constitution and the intolerant Wahhabist movement
dominates religion, culture and social policy.
An experimental round of local municipal elections concluded last week --
the first elections in 40 years. But Saudi political liberalization
hasn't advanced very far: Women couldn't vote, half of the council's
seats are appointed and the next round of voting is four years off.
Reform is also needed for the Saudi economy. Despite its vast oil
wealth, Saudi Arabia suffers from 25 percent unemployment. Its closed
economy stifles opportunity, especially among its frustrated young,
where the jobless rate hits 35 percent. On a positive note: An
economy-opening bilateral trade agreement may be announced today.
The Saudis should be encouraged to move forward with serious political,
economic and social reform. Free political systems, markets and
societies are the best antidote to extremism -- and terrorism.
The president will also undoubtedly address: Saudi support for the
Middle East peace process and rebuilding Iraq, and recent IAEA concerns
about Riyadh's nuclear intentions.
Sixty years ago, FDR met with Saudi King Abdul Aziz aboard the USS
Quincy in the Suez Canal, launching a unique relationship -- and
significant American involvement in Middle Eastern affairs.
The relationship has moved well beyond its "oil for security" origins.
The U.S.-Saudi partnership is increasingly pivotal in reshaping the
Arab/Muslim world and beating al Qaeda in its own backyard.
Today's meeting provides the perfect opportunity for recasting a
troubled partnership -- and striking a blow for change in the Middle
East.
Peter Brookes is a Heritage Foundation senior fellow.
E-mail:
peterbrookes@heritage.org
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© 2005 News World Communications, Inc.
All rights reserved. Mr. Brookes is a Senior Fellow for National
Security Affairs at The Heritage Foundation in Washington, DC. This
column originally appeared in the New York Post. All opinions
expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily
reflect those of Military.com.
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