Faced with a growing insurgency and a January deadline for
national elections, U.S. commanders in Iraq say they are preparing
operations to open up rebel-held areas, especially Falluja, the
restive city west of Baghdad now under control of insurgents and
Islamist groups.
A senior U.S. commander said the military intended to take back
Falluja and other rebel areas by the end of the year. He did not set
a date for an offensive but said that much would depend on the
availability of Iraqi military and police units, which would be sent
to the areas once they were retaken.
The U.S. commander suggested that operations in Falluja could
begin as early as November or December, the deadline the Americans
had given themselves for restoring Iraqi government control across
the country.
"We need to make a decision on when the cancer of Falluja is
going to be cut out," the U.S. commander said. "We would like to end
December at local control across the country.
"Falluja will be tough," he added.
At a minimum, the U.S. commander said, local conditions would
have to be secure for voting to take place in the country's 18
provincial capitals for the election to be considered legitimate.
U.S. forces have lost control over at least one provincial capital,
Ramadi, in Al Anbar Province, and have only a tenuous grip over a
second, Baquba, the capital of Diyala Province, northeast of
Baghdad. Other large cities in the region, like Samarra, are largely
in the hands of insurgents.
Senior officials at the United Nations are concerned that
legitimate elections might not be possible unless the security
conditions change. Violence against U.S. forces surged last month to
its highest level since the war began last year, with an average of
87 attacks per day. A string of deadly attacks in the past month
continued on Saturday, with a car bombing that killed at least 19
people in the northern city of Kirkuk.
At the same time, the Americans and the Iraqi interim government
appear to be giving negotiations to disarm the rebels a final
chance. Members of the Mujahedeen Shura, the eight-member council in
control of Falluja, said they were planning to come to Baghdad to
meet with Iraqi officials to talk about disarming the rebels and
opening the city to Iraqi government control.
"Although the Americans have lied many times, we are ready to
start negotiations with the Iraqi government," said Qasim Muhammad
Abdul Sattar, a member of the shura.
Ahmed Hardan, a doctor in Falluja who was to take part in the
negotiations starting Sunday, said that at least some members on the
council might be willing to strike a deal with the Americans.
Under the proposal to be discussed, Hardan said, the guerrillas
would turn over their heavy weapons and allow a military force
gathered from around Al Anbar Province to enter the city. That unit
would replace the Falluja Brigade, the local militia composed almost
entirely of insurgents and former members of Saddam Hussein's Baath
Party, which was formed in an effort to bring an end to the
insurgency after an assault by U.S. Marines was halted in April.
The Falluja Brigade was routed by the insurgents, and the Iraqi
government disbanded it this month.
The Iraqi government will also demand that the insurgents turn
over their heavy weapons and that foreign fighters leave the city.
Similar negotiations, also at the threat of force, appear to have
borne some fruit in the city of Samarra. American military forces
entered Samarra last week for the first time in months and are
hoping they can restore Iraqi government control there before the
elections.
The driving force behind the coming military operations is
concern that under the current security conditions, voting will not
be possible in much of the Sunni Triangle, the area generally north
and west of Baghdad that has generated most of the violence against
the U.S. enterprise in Iraq.
"Bad elections will open wounds rather than heal them," said
Ghassan al-Atiyyah, the director of the Iraqi Foundation for
Development and Democracy, an independent governance group here. "If
the Sunnis do not vote, then you could end up with a polarized
parliament that could lead to civil war."
Still, Iraqi and UN officials say they have begun preparations to
hold the elections across the country despite the chaotic security
environment.
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