Little more than a month before the Pentagon releases its proposal, information about which bases will be shut or reconfigured is mostly guesswork. That means state and local officials in North Carolina are parsing comments from military leaders as carefully as stockbrokers dissect the Delphic pronouncements of Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan.

Amid the swirl of rumors and speculation, a rare hard fact surfaced late last month when Secretary of Defense Donald H. Rumsfeld backed away from estimates that up to a quarter of the nation's base capacity would be closed. Instead, the number would be less than 20 percent, he said, because a plan to close some overseas bases will bring thousands of troops back to the United States.

"It was good news for all of us," said Troy Pate of Goldsboro, co-chairman of the Governor's Commission on Military Affairs. "Beyond that, who knows? Rumsfeld is playing it close to the vest."

Even at this late date, state leaders are still polishing North Carolina's image as an attentive host to the military. Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue made public a package of legislation last month designed to support troops stationed in the state.

The Pentagon will release its proposed list of bases to be closed or to get new missions by May 16. A federal commission named by President Bush in March will then review the list before presenting its recommendations to Bush on Sept. 8.

Bush can approve the recommendations or send them back for modification before passing them on to Congress. Congress can either approve or reject the list but can't modify it.

Officials in North Carolina say they have not been told that any specific base is at risk. But because Camp Lejeune and Fort Bragg, the two largest, are widely considered to be immune, concern surrounds Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station in Havelock and its Naval Air Depot, as well as Seymour Johnson Air Force Base in Goldsboro.

Plenty on the line

The stakes are high. High-paying jobs are scarce in Eastern North Carolina. The depot, an aircraft repair plant, employs 4,000 civilians at an average annual salary of nearly $50,000. Seymour Johnson brings nearly 15,000 jobs and $800 million a year to the state's economy, state leaders say.

Across the state, there are more than 100,000 troops and 20,000 civilian workers at six major bases, which generate an estimated $18 billion for the economy, according to a 2004 study funded by the state.

In some states, fears run higher because of obvious problems at bases, such as encroaching development. More homes close to bases mean more complaints -- and even lawsuits -- about noise from sources such as aircraft or artillery.

North Carolina has been working for years to protect its bases. Among other things, state and local officials moved early to limit encroachment, starting joint land-use studies with the military around each large base and helping to buy land for bigger buffers.

Pentagon officials have repeatedly said no base was beyond scrutiny, but the state's two largest -- the Army's Fort Bragg in Fayetteville and the Marines' Camp Lejeune -- are widely believed to be safe and perhaps even poised to gain from closings elsewhere.

One possibility, said Hugh Overholt, a New Bern lawyer who works for a group trying to protect Cherry Point, is that the depot could end up on the list for "realignment." The Pentagon's Base Realignment and Closure Commission is under orders to carefully scrutinize the nation's air depots, particularly for functions that could be moved elsewhere.

Many factors at work

Among the many wild cards is the problem with encroaching development at Oceana Naval Air Station in fast-growing Virginia Beach. Encroachment there is said to be among the worst of any military airfield in the nation, and more than 2,000 homeowners have sued the federal government seeking compensation.

If the jets based there have to be moved, they could go to Cherry Point, which is already expected to split several squadrons of new F/A-18 Super Hornets with Oceana. That would not only help Cherry Point dodge the list, but would bring millions of dollars a year to the Havelock area.

Pate, who has close ties to the Seymour Johnson base, said that community leaders there have been told that the Air Force clearly wants to keep the base, which is home to a wing of F-15E Strike Eagles that have played central roles in fighting in Afghanistan and Iraq. The thinking among Department of Defense leaders, though, has been impossible to read.

He hopes the base's attributes help its chances. These include proximity to the massive Dare bombing range, which the base runs, and Fort Bragg. It's also the backup deployment base for Bragg's 82nd Airborne Division.

The Air Force has spent more than $100 million on updates to the base in recent years, and that could help, too, he said.

Perdue has spearheaded the state's campaign to protect the bases. The various measures in her recently proposed omnibus bill weren't earthshaking -- one of the biggest was to earmark taxes from gasoline sold on military bases for services for military families and to protect bases from encroachment -- but they didn't have to be, said Leigh Harvey McNairy, Perdue's liaison for military matters. As several Pentagon officials have told Perdue, the state already has a proven reputation for being friendly to the military.

"At this point, it's not about theatrics; it's not fireworks," she said. "You just want to show the same steady progress."

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