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September 20, 2004
[Have an opinion about the issues discussed in this article?
Sound
off in our Discussion Boards.]
By Joseph Giordono,
Stars and Stripes Pacific Edition
YONGSAN GARRISON, South Korea — Ongoing U.S. and South Korean intelligence
analysis has yet to definitively solve the mystery surrounding last
week’s reported explosion in North
Korea, the top U.S. military commander in South Korea said Friday.
U.S. Forces Korea commander Gen. Leon J. LaPorte, holding a news
conference for the Ministry of National Defense press corps, said
a “full and rapid” sharing of intelligence has ensued since first
reports of a massive explosion — leading to speculation over whether
North Korea had conducted a nuclear weapons test — surfaced Sept.
12.
“I don’t know the exact purpose, if there was an explosion,” LaPorte
said in a question-and-answer session. “We know what North Korea
has said. … Intelligence is both a process and a product. And many
times, you have to have an extended process to develop quality products.
It’s going to take us time to answer all of the second- and third-order
questions associated with this incident.
“I am confident we will eventually know what happened, and what
didn’t happen.”
LaPorte noted the limitations of “technical intel” in the stead
of “human intel.” The former refers to satellite photography, geophysical
analysis and other high-tech methods; the latter, referring to reports
from actual sources on the ground, is notoriously hard to cultivate
in North Korea’s closed society.
Since the first reports, including largely debunked reports of
a miles-wide “mushroom cloud,” some doubt has been shed on whether
any explosion occurred at all, though the North Koreans have explained
it as part of a hydroelectric power construction project. South
Korean and U.S. officials have largely ruled out the possibility
of a nuclear test.
Separately on Friday, senior South Korean government officials
said they have yet to see convincing evidence that a massive explosion
actually occurred.
In his conference, held at the “White House” command building on
Yongsan Garrison, LaPorte also said neither USFK nor the Combined
Forces Command had any indication North Korea was planning a so-called
“October surprise” demonstration of its alleged nuclear weapons
capabilities.
“No, we do not have information that North Korea is conducting,
or planning to conduct, a nuclear test,” LaPorte said. “Do they
have the capabilities? I think North Korea could best answer that
question.”
Noting that he is not a policymaker, LaPorte said any response
to a possible escalation of the nuclear crisis likely would be handled
through diplomatic channels.
LaPorte also commented on the proposed reduction and relocation
of U.S. forces in South Korea. Within the next four years, most
U.S. forces will be located on two large military hubs in the Pyongtaek
and Pusan regions. And under a proposal being negotiated, the Pentagon
plans to remove 12,500 of its troops from South Korea by the end
of next year.
South Korea has asked for the reduction to be delayed by at least
one year.
“Most importantly, we need to be certain that we can guarantee
the security of the Korean people,” LaPorte said, noting that any
reduction in forces would not weaken the deterrent effect of the
U.S. military presence.
Any reduction in numbers of troops on the ground would be more
than made up for by an increase in military capabilities, he said.
“Both our governments and our militaries are looking at appropriate
force levels for the future,” LaPorte said. “The important point
is we must collaborate and consult to ensure that we have a complementary
force. And that is what is going on now.”
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