Summary
The Yugoslav army entered the ground safety zone along the Kosovo
border March 14. Serb forces were deployed into areas near where
ethnic Albanian militants control strategically important
villages. But ethnic Albanians are fighting to keep those
villages from Serb control and ultimately will attack KFOR and
Serb patrols in defense of the region. KFOR can expect the number
of guerrilla forces to grow along the border and for its forces,
and those of the Serbs, to be under the constant threat of
ambush.
Analysis
With ethnic Albanian militants fighting for control of key
villages inside a 3-mile ground safety zone established by NATO,
the Yugoslav army entered the area March 14 in order to stem the
incursion of the Liberation Army of Presevo, Medvedja and
Bujanovac (UCPMB).
But the guerrillas will target the Serb patrols entering the
ground safety zone, as well as U.S. KFOR units, in order to
defend the strategically important villages and continue the
fight for Kosovo's independence. Moreover, Albanian militants
will recruit heavily for the fight and keep with hit-and-run
attacks against multinational forces in the Presevo Valley.
In an attempt to stabilize the region, KFOR will be forced to
consider a build up of multinational forces along the border to
suppress Albanian extremists. But as a result, KFOR, U.N.
monitors and Serb forces will come under regular attacks by small
bands of Albanians who will migrate over territory in Serbia's
Presevo Valley. Only a major buildup by KFOR's forces along the
border would stem the violence, and even that is an uncertain
proposition.
KFOR's biggest challenge will be sealing the border from arms
traffic and new UCPMB recruits. Until KFOR can interdict all
guerrilla personnel and equipment, the militants will own the
Presevo Valley.
U.S.-KFOR forces, part of what is known as Multinational Brigade
East, are responsible for three zones along Kosovo's border with
Macedonia and Serbia. The area has become the center of gravity
for a potential border war.
The Albanian extremists seek armed control of predominantly
Albanian communities in Serbia's territory. Albanian paramilitary
leaders claim NATO betrayed them by refusing to declare Kosovo
independent and by aligning with new Yugoslav President Vojislav
Kostunica.
While Serb forces are not allowed near areas under Albanian
control, U.S.-KFOR forces -- with notable assistance from British,
Scandinavian, Polish, Russian and Ukrainian forces -- are
attempting to clean up towns occupied by the militants.
KFOR efforts to contain the Presevo Valley will resemble the
cleanup missions by Russian paratroopers at the end of the1999
incursion by Islamic militants in Dagestan.
These are preventive operations in towns under the risk of rebel
occupation. Keeping these towns from rebel control will require a
steady KFOR presence through the spring and winter.
Other towns inside the ground safety zone are currently under
guerrilla control. These include Dobrosin, Konculj, Lucane,
Bujanovac and Veliki Trnovac -- all inside Serbia proper. There
are as many as 4000 militants already inside the ground safety
zone between Kosovo and Serbia and there are about 300 militants
inside Macedonia, concentrated southwest of Serbia's Presevo
Valley near Tanusevci.
NATO will allow only small teams of KFOR liaisons into the ground
safety zone and will help coordinate operations with Serb forces
in the Presevo Valley. Monitors from the European Union and
United Nations will be in place to oversee the actions of Serb
forces. KFOR's objective in the Presevo Valley is to contain the
militants in their strongholds and to rout them from towns under
partial control.
NATO's mission in the Presevo Valley is risky. Guerrillas have
launched mortars inside the ground safety zone from Macedonia,
Serbia and Kosovo, and they regularly engage Serb police. Ethnic
Albanian strongholds cannot be overwhelmed by force, as Serb
forces cannot bring anti-tank weapons, artillery or tanks into
the ground safety zone. The matter is such a concern for Yugoslav
officials that Serb Deputy Prime Minister Nebojsa Covic and
President Kostunica fear NATO has put Serb forces in harm's way.
Moreover, there is a strong likelihood multinational forces will
be encircled in their effort to contain the militants.
The UCPMB is expanding its base of influence inside Kosovo,
likely following the refugee traffic. Substantial refugee flows
have gone eastward into Kosovo from the Presevo Valley.
In December 2000, the UNHCR regional office reported 4,900
internally displaced people sought refuge in Kosovo from the
Presevo Valley. Most registered in towns surrounding Gnjilane and
Kamenica, a few miles inside the border across Dobrosin, the
guerilla stronghold. Also, almost 100 people fled to Kosovo for
every person fleeing to Serbia.
Given the freedom of movement within the buffer zone and the
flight of most persons to Kosovo, UCPMB forces are likely to
build up forces in the key towns inside Kosovo. These include
Malisevo, Zegra, Toponica and Karacevo, and also Breznica inside
Serbia.
At present, guerilla forces are diffused throughout the region,
and KFOR and Serb forces effectively will become ducks in the
barrel while on patrol.
UCPMB forces have confronted police at key transport routes into
Serbia from Kosovo, including Malina Malla, Blace, Mucibaba and
Brevnik. These were probably attempts to monitor traffic at
crossing points. Despite calls by ethnic Albanian moderates,
UCPMB field colonels are bracing for war. Their targets will be
KFOR and Serbian personnel patrolling inside the ground safety
zone and outside along the border.
UCPMB will attempt to hold at key points along the border and
will use the mountains as cover. Much like Russia's problems in
Dagestan, KFOR will face a mobile enemy and will remain unable to
isolate the guerilla bands. KFOR and Serb forces will be subject
to regular hit-and-run attacks by UCPMB bands, and they will
suffer numerous casualties through the spring.
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